Neil Diamond was in the house with the Idols last night, a treat for both viewers and contestants. However, the overwhelming amount of buzz on the blogs was not about the contestants, but about Paula Abdul's mistake in reacting to Jason Castro's second song - before the performance even took place. It turns out influential bloggers were underwhelmed with the performances as a whole, and actually appreciated Paula's flub for making this episode memorable.
See below the ranking of contestants by number of influential blog posts as of Wednesday (April 30):
David Archuleta: 401 sites/ 7,845 posts
David Cook: 580 sites/ 7,263 posts
Brooke White: 468 sites/ 5,709 posts
Jason Castro: 479 sites / 5,296 posts
Syesha Mercado: 193 sites / 5,026 posts
What do influencers actually have to say about each contestant? Here's an aggregate assessment:
David Cook: Influencers liked his acoustic performance better than the first with the electric guitar. He’s still the front runner to win.
David Archuleta: Influencers say that his song choices were great for getting votes, and expect his latest pick will pull in a ton of votes in his favor. He’s still neck and neck with David Cook to win.
Brooke White: Influencers are not Brooke fans. They thought her second song was better than her first, but have her pegged as the one to leave. Some are still grumbling that she should have gone last week instead of Carly Smithson.
Jason Castro: Influencers say that he missed the opportunity to take it to the next level, saying that he was flat and lackluster. It appears bloggers are evenly split between Jason and Brooke as the ones to leave tonight.
Syesha Mercado: Influencers still like Syesha, and are talking about her being Neil’s favorite. Influencers say her song selections were smart, and hope that the “pimp spot” will stave off Simon’s negativity and that she’ll be back next week.
Who are the influencer picks to go? Again, influencers appear evenly split between thinking Jason and Brooke should go. However, many point to Syesha as the one that will go (undeservedly so), as she has not been a fan favorite.
Looking back over the last few weeks, here is what our analysis has told us so far:
Influencers and voters don't always agree. In some cases, like David Cook and David Archuleta, the amount and tone of blog buzz matches viewer voting behavior; influencers consistently praise these two, and they remain safe week after week. On the flip side, Syesha continues to appear in the Bottom 3, yet she has a small number of influencers who continue to root for her. Notice how she has half the number of influential sites talking about her as compared to her competitors - yet the sheer number of posts generated about Syesha rival that of other contestants.
In some cases, the amount of blog buzz seems to correlate to viewers interest. For example, during her tenure on the show, Kristy Lee Cook was one of the least blogged about contestants. Did a lack of buzz usher along her inevitable departure? Carly Smithson also didn't retain influencer interest; during her last week on the show (April 21) she slipped to the bottom in terms of sheer number of posts, with 4743 in total - the lowest amount she has had since April 8. We'll continue to watch out for this dynamic leading up to the finale.
Another interesting trend to note is how the influencer buzz around Brooke White has taken shape over the last few weeks. As April 1st, she was the female contestant with the highest number of influential posts, and overall commentary was supportive. As of April 14, following her performance of Mariah Carey's "Hero", the number of posts containing "Brooke White" continued to escalate. However, the tone dramatically shifted, and influencers turned against the contestant. Bloggers have predicted she would be in the Bottom 3 the last three weeks, and are out and out calling for her to leave the show. Do fans agree? Stay tuned...
